The Odds-On Favorite?
Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY SportsThe most popular of all preseason bets are placed on teams to win the Super Bowl. Currently, the Denver Broncos are the favorites at 13/2 odds followed by the New England Patriots (15/2), the San Francisco 49ers (15/2) and the Seattle Seahawks (15/2). I hate to break it to you Minnesota fans, but the Vikings are currently 75/1 to win the Super Bowl this year…so you’re telling me there’s a chance?!?
Another type of wager getting a lot of attention leading up to opening week are the grouping of prop bets that were released earlier this week.The odds for Bovada’s NFL Football Player Proposition Bets were recently posted and believe it or not, a smattering of Vikings made an appearance on the lists!
Upon initial release, second-year wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson is sitting with 50/1 odds to Lead the League in Receiving Yards. Former Minnesota Viking Percy Harvin is sitting at 15/1 to win 2014 NFL Comeback Player of the Year. And for the first time in a very long time, the Vikings do not have a coach on the 1st Coach to be Fired list!
Sadly, there is not a single Minnesota quarterback listed in the Regular Season Passing Yards list putting Matt Cassel and Teddy Bridgewater at worse than 250/1 odds.
To no one’s surprise, making the biggest splash for the Vikings in this year’s prop bet field is running back Adrian Peterson who is currently the odds-on favorite to Lead the League in Rushing Yards at 4/1. Given his track record, making Adrian the favorite is probably the safe bet for those interested in a wager. Over the past two seasons, Adrian has rushed for 3,363 yards on 627 carries, averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Over that same period of time, Adrian’s closest competition Alfred Morris rushed for 2,888 yards, Marshawn Lynch ran for 2,847, Jamaal Charles for 2,796, and the self appointed “best running back in the league” LeSean McCoy only ran for 2,447 yards.
With all but one of his seven professional seasons yielding more than 1,000 rushing yards, Adrian has rushed for an average of 1,445 yards a season and averages just under 300 carries per season. With a history littered with numbers like that, Peterson has regularly found himself in the running for the rushing title as each year comes to a close.
But is history about to change?
There is one variable at play this season for the Vikings that would make me uneasy about putting money down on Adrian for this bet.
The implementation of a new offense brings with it a high level of uncertainty for any and all incumbents. While we’ve had a little taste of Norv Turner’s new “Air Coryell” offensive scheme this preseason, there are still big questions surrounding what type of a role Adrian will play.
Gone are the days where Adrian Peterson is the Vikings only offensive weapon. Recent additions of Kyle Rudolph, Cordarrelle Patterson and Greg Jennings have made the Vikings offense more dynamic and in turn have taken some of the dependency away from Peterson. Add in a new offense that may lean on Adrian through the air more and will likely have expanded roles for other backs like Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata, and you’ve got me leery about placing money on AP to lead this season.
Considering this unknown variable, the smart bet may turn the way of players like Jamaal Charles (7/1) and Marshawn Lynch (12/1) who will confidently be featured in the run game for their respective offenses and may give you a better opportunity to turn a larger profit
So what do you think, would you place a your bet on Adrian to lead the league in rushing yards this season?